A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
